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A recession is the scariest creature in the average investor’s closet of anxieties. Even though the last recession ended more than a decade ago, people fear recessions because they can mean lower home prices, lower stock prices – and no job.

Any number of things can cause, or exacerbate, a recession: an exogenous shock, such as today’s COVID-19 crisis (which now has even Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell admitting that we might currently be in a recession) or the Arab oil embargo of 1973; soaring interest rates; or ill-conceived legislation, such as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.

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